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Episode 1467: Strasburg Back
Date December 10, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller follow up on (o)possums playing dead, discuss the Nationals signing Stephen Strasburg to a record contract for a pitcher and the implications for the Nationals, Scott Boras, Anthony Rendon, and Gerrit Cole, banter about the possibility of Shohei Ohtani hitting on the days he pitches, the elections of Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons to the Hall of Fame, MLB moving the amateur draft site to Omaha, and the end of marijuana testing for minor leaguers, then review the first 14 of Bill James’s 30 recent suggestions for counteracting baseball’s slowing pace of play and rising strikeout and home run rates. Topics * Bill James's suggestions for how to fix the aesthetics of baseball * Rise in strikeout and home run rates * Pace of play and length of games * Changes to pitcher usage rates * Limiting pitcher appearances in a game or series * Being able to withdraw a pinch hitter * Requiring pitchers to throw from the rubber * Moving the mound back * Ensuring starters throw deeper into games * Limiting roster moves * Eliminating pickoff throws Intro Grateful Dead, "St. Stephen" Outro The Apples in Stereo, "Stephen Stephen" Banter * Episode 1465 follow-up: Sam offers more information about opossums 'playing dead'. * Reviewing the Stephen Strasburg signing * Trend of World Series winning teams trying to bring back their entire roster * #1 overall picks who spend their entire career with a team * Stephen Strasburg's durability * How the Strasburg signing impacts (or doesn't) the Nationals ability to resign Anthony Rendon * Predicting when and for how much Gerrit Cole will sign * Encouraging teams to be creative with contracts * Shohei Ohtani possibly pitching and hitting on the same day * MLB Draft move to Omaha, NE * Election of Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons to the Hall of Fame * Modern Era committee and players not elected to the Hall of Fame * Removal of marijuana as a banned substance for minor league players Bill James's Suggestions Ben and Sam review the first half of Bill James's 30 suggestions for improving baseball. These suggestions deal primarily with pace of play and pitcher usage. # Batters may not step out of the batters box during a plate appearance. # Batters may step out at most once per team per inning. #:Sam: Okay, but wouldn't help because there are already restrictions on stepping out, and pitchers are the bigger problem with pace of play. # Mid-inning pitching changes permitted only once per game, or after the pitcher has given up a run in that inning. #:Sam: Doesn't like "one per game"-style rules; may as well go to "none per game". But he likes the idea of reliever specialization, and this would negate that. Suggests removing warm-up pitches for mid-inning changes. # Teams may use at most three pitchers in the first nine innings. #:Sam: Likes this because he likes counting pitches, and this would lead to more pitch counting # At most 11 pitchers may be on the roster. #:Sam: Okay with this. # Teams may use at most 7 (say) pitchers in a 3-game series, with adjustments for series length and extra innings. #:Sam: Likes this because it creates inter-game consequences, but he would remove the limit for extra innings. # A pitcher may not appear in consecutive games. #:Sam: Doesn't like this because it feels like a Little League rule to protect pitchers. # If a team changes pitchers in response to a pinch hitter, the batting team may withdraw the PH: The original batter bats, and the PH is eligible to enter the game later. #:Sam: Doesn't think you should be able to withdraw a player after announcing him. He likes the idea of a player entering the game and be taken out without doing anything. # Enforce the rule that the pitcher's foot must be on the rubber when he releases the ball. #:Sam: "I don't have a problem with pitchers throwing the way they throw." # Move the mound back 3 inches. (Less than other proposals.) #:Sam: "I think they should keep the mound where it is but move the plate back." # If a starter is removed before completing 5 innings or giving up 4 runs, he may not pitch again for 8 days. ("Anti-opener.") #:Sam: Doesn't want to stifle manager creativity. Ben struggles with the conflict created when a creative solution leads to a less entertaining product. # Teams may make at most one roster move per week. If not used, the team may make two moves the next week. Three free moves per season. #:Sam: "I think we just have to live with the churn." # Limit pickoff attempts: Two free attempts per batter. If third attempt is unsuccessful, then runner is awarded second base. #:Sam: Says "Yes" even before Ben finishes reading. It increases strategy and mind games. Might paradoxically increase successful pickoffs because runners become more daring. Also proposes "One free pickoff attempt. Every subsequent pickoff attempt is also a ball to the batter." # Abolish the balk rule and replace it with something better. #:Sam: Depends on what "something better" is. He fears that pitchers will create complex and misleading deliveries. # Pickoff attempt allowed only if runner is at least 6 feet from the base. #:Sam: Doesn't believe that lazy pickoffs are a problem but he'd be okay with it. Notes * Opossums have a biological shock response that shuts down parts of their body and emit a smell of decay. This works to convince prey that they may be rotting, making it less likely they are eaten. * Stephen Strasburg signed a record contract for a pitcher for 7 years and $245 million. It has a no trade clause and no opt-outs. Gerrit Cole's upcoming contract is expected to break this record. * Ben notes that this effectively ends any chance of him winning the Episode 1455 free-agent contracts draft. He took the under on a $180 million contract for Stephen Strasburg. * Sam wants teams to be more creative with contracts, citing Chase Utley's 2013 extension as an example. The two-year extension had three options which vested based on a series of plate appearance and disabled list day benchmarks. The contact was discussed in Episode 261. * Sam, in response to Bill James's suggestion number 12: "I think everybody should be allowed to use the carpool lane once a month when they really need it, whether or not they have anybody in the car with them." * MLB The Show will expand to other consoles (beyond PlayStation) starting as early as 2021. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1467: Strasburg Back * Facts On Opossums Playing Dead by Bethney Foster * Stephen Strasburg's Record-Setting Deal Is Surprising, but It Could Make a Lot of Sense by Ben Lindbergh * Bruce Chen: Social Scientist by Jeff Sullivan * The Bill James Handbook, 2020 Edition by Bill James Category:Episodes